美经济强韧美联储可能放鹰 本周利率决策会议估按兵不动
<div><picture style="box-sizing: border-box;"><font size="4" face="宋体"><br></font></picture></div><picture style="box-sizing: border-box;"><font size="4" face="宋体"><img alt="联储主席鲍尔。 （路透）" class=" lazyloaded" data-src="https://pgw.worldjournal.com/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/wj/realtime/2025/05/05/31978969.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=800&exp=3600&q=75" src="https://pgw.worldjournal.com/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/wj/realtime/2025/05/05/31978969.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=800&exp=3600&q=75" _mstalt="63188450" _msthash="212" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; object-fit: contain; width: 580px; height: 386px;"></font></picture><figcaption _msttexthash="63166948" _msthash="213" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px; color: rgb(126, 126, 126); background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><font size="4" face="宋体">联储主席鲍尔。 （路透）</font></figcaption><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font _mstmutation="1" _msttexthash="1141246405" _msthash="214" style="box-sizing: border-box;" size="4" face="宋体">美联储本周预料将维持基准利率不变，同时基于美国通胀率依然居高不下、经济在面对<span _istranslated="1" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(126, 126, 126); text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">关税</span><font color="#7e7e7e"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">不确定性时持续展现韧性，主席</span></font><span _istranslated="1" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(126, 126, 126); text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">鲍尔</span><font color="#7e7e7e"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">的发言也很高的机率会呈现鹰派基调。</span></font></font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p _msttexthash="496576587" _msthash="215" style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font size="4" face="宋体">Fed预定美东时间7日下午2时公布利率决策，经济学者及市场人士普遍预料Fed将维持基准利率区间于4.25%-4.5%不变。</font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font _mstmutation="1" _msttexthash="612333267" _msthash="216" style="box-sizing: border-box;" size="4" face="宋体">不过，彭博经济学家预期，鲍威尔在决策会后记者会的发言可能较偏向鹰派，市场也可能下修对今年<span _istranslated="1" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(126, 126, 126); text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">降息</span><font color="#7e7e7e"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(126, 126, 126); transition: color 0.3s linear, border 0.3s linear;">幅度的预期。</span></font></font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p _msttexthash="4169284574" _msthash="217" style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font size="4" face="宋体">决策官员可能会在本周会议热烈讨论通胀预期升高，以及关税将如何影响今年通胀走向。 尽管3月个人消费支出（PCE）核心平减指数与2月持平，年升幅也下降，但关税升高却可能颠覆通胀下降的趋势，可能促使决策官员预测到今年底时，PCE核心平减指数年升幅将升高到3.5-4.0%，再加上4月就业数据稳固，降低Fed近期内降息的压力。</font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p _msttexthash="4790802770" _msthash="218" style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font size="4" face="宋体">上周公布的4月就业报告及制造业数据都优于预估，缓解市场对经济衰退忧虑。 4月非农就业人数增加17.7万人，比经济学者预估的13.8万高出不少，失业率也维持在4.2%，劳动参与率持续回升。 就业数据公布后，市场预期今年美联储降息幅度预期已由原先的100基点（4码），缩小到84基点（3-4码，但偏向3码），但这项预期可能仍太过乐观。</font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p _msttexthash="2213397901" _msthash="219" style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font size="4" face="宋体">另外，3月工厂订单增加4.3%，是连续第三个月成长; 其中运输设备订单更激增27%，使耐用品订单额增加9.2%。 美国本周将公布4月ISM服务业指数，预估将从50.8降到50.4，但景气仍处于扩张水平，显示美国经济在受关税冲击前相当强韧。</font></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"></p><p _msttexthash="3539623841" _msthash="220" style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 1px; margin-bottom: 20px; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); word-break: break-word;"><font size="4" face="宋体">Fed的处境相当尴尬。 官员聚焦于通胀走势，并担心通胀预期可能动摇，因此将按兵不动，但各界对经济成长减缓的忧虑加深，且美国总统特朗普及一些白宫官员频频要求Fed降息。 所幸4月就业报告意外之强，让鲍尔对经济走势较为放心。 只要劳动市场仍坚实，美联储就能更轻松地坚持缓步降息立场。</font></p><figure class="article-content__image--story article-content__image--middle" data-url="https://pgw.worldjournal.com/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/wj/realtime/2025/05/05/31978970.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=800&exp=3600&q=75" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 580px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><picture style="box-sizing: border-box;"><font size="4" face="宋体"><source data-srcset="https://pgw.worldjournal.com/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/wj/realtime/2025/05/05/31978970.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=800&exp=3600&q=75&nt=1" type="image/webp" srcset="https://pgw.worldjournal.com/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/wj/realtime/2025/05/05/31978970.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=800&exp=3600&q=75&nt=1" style="box-sizing: 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